Immigration and redistricting (and immigration policy)

Any Twitter feud between Ted Cruz and Trevor Noah is going to get my attention. So far, there’s not much of a feud, but Cruz fired a shot, and I”m hoping Noah responds. The focus of this is on the census, and that states like New York and California will be losing congressional seats, while Texas and Florida will be gaining seats. What I’m left wondering is how much of the different population numbers are because of Trump administration immigration policies.

There’s no doubt in my mind that there are people moving out of places like New York and moving into places like the Carolinas and Florida. Anecdotally, I know plenty of people who moved out of Western New York for warmer (and lower tax) climates. I’m not sure that the taxes were their primary reason for moving, but they sure talk a lot about it on their way out.

But I also wonder if four years of stalled or slowed immigration contributed. The image posted here from Pew shows the location of new immigrants. The New York numbers would, therefore, be affected by a reduction in immigration. So would the Florida numbers, and the Texas numbers, but perhaps to a lesser degree, and there also might be some heterogeneity in the immigrant populations that enter the different states.

Remember, Trump’s administration wasn’t just anti-illegal immigration. They made it harder to come here legally also (at least for some groups). I’m curious to know if that’s responsible for the 80+ people that New York fell short of in keeping all of its seats in congress. I suspect that it is.

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